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Wednesday, January 28, 2009

How and When Do UFC Fights End?

Over time, it seems, people are starting to latch-on to the idea of numbers and their role in MMA. It may still be a while before the hardcore analytics are widespread, but it's nice to see people asking questions about the sport and then looking for actual data instead of just guessing at the answer.

I got a tip from Pramit Mohapatra of FightTicker. com (one of the more intelligent and well-spoken online MMA communities) of a nice debate going on regarding the length of fights and the methods by which they're finished. He asked for some real data on the question of finishes vs. time and we were happy to provide it.

Check out Pramit's post with the results to see answers to the big questions:

  • Do fight finishes diminish as the fight goes longer?
  • Does the trend apply to both KO/TKO's and submissions?
  • Are you more likely to see a last-minute knockout or a last-minute submission?

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Lyoto Machida

First things first: We're still looking for volunteers for the Reach Data Project. It takes very little time to participate and it would help us a great deal.

We have a few new things up today. The first is an updated report on Fedor, which now includes the bout against Andrei Arlovski. The other new material all relates to Lyoto Machida, including a career report, and reports on his fights against Sam Greco and Sam Hoger.

Most people wouldn't put Machida in the same league as Fedor (at least not yet), but there is something very important that ties the two together. To demostrate, let's play a little matching game.

One of the best ways to measure effective defense and dominance is to look at the number of strikes a fighter absorbs. Because of variable fight lengths, the easiest way to consistently calculate this is to figure the number of strikes absorbed divided by the number of minutes fought. That gives you the number of strikes absorbed per minute of fighting, which we abbreviate as SApM. Here are some SApM figures for the five current UFC champions:

Fighter A: 0.71 SApM
Fighter B: 1.01 SApM
Fighter C: 1.23 SApM
Fighter D: 1.39 SApM
Fighter E: 2.7 SApM

The fighters in question are (in alphabetical order): Rashad Evans, Frank Mir, BJ Penn, Anderson Silva, and Georges St. Pierre. Can you guess which SApM number belongs to which fighter? The answers are pretty predictable:

Anderson Silva: 0.71 SApM
BJ Penn: 1.23 SApM
Rashad Evans: 1.39 SApM
Frank Mir: 2.7 SApM

Let's wrap things up with two more fighters' numbers:

Lyoto Machida: 0.64 SApM

Both Fedor and Machida have proven harder to hit than all of the UFC's champions. And it's not like there is a shortage of data on any of these guys. These numbers are from their entire careers. Does it mean Fedor and Machida are better than the other fighters? Not necessarily...this is just one subset of their entire fighting profile. But it is interesting to note that Fedor and Machida come in #1 and #2 in terms of the hardest guys to hit in MMA history.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Join the FightMetric Reach Data Project

FightMetric may be synonymous with advanced analysis, but that doesn't mean we are ignoring some of the simpler data out there. The simplest form of analysis that we can do across our database is based on personal characteristics. Does the younger fighter win more often? How much of a height difference is necessary to confer an advantage on the taller fighter? However, there's one piece of physical data that we've found inconsistent and hard to accumulate: reach stats.

Simply put, there's no reliable source of reach information. To start, the UFC (and other organizations) didn't even bother tracking this information until a couple of years ago. To make matters worse, the numbers thrown up on-screen right before UFC fights vary wildly for the same fighter across different fights. For example, Gabriel Gonzaga is listed as having a 72-inch reach in his fight against Mirko Filipovic, but listed with a 77-inch reach in his fight against Kevin Jordan.

Clearly, any study of reach will have to be done with care. Because of the inconsistencies in these numbers, the best way to go about it is to get as many measurements as possible for each fighter. And that's where we'd like to enlist your help for a little experiment in crowdsourcing.

What we need is some volunteers with access to a good UFC DVD library. The UFC began showing reach data starting at UFC 54, so we'll want to look at every fight since that event. If you want to help and have access to video of those events, send an email to info@fightmetric.com listing the events that you'd like to track. We'll keep a running list of the events we still need here:


As we get volunteers, we'll cross the events off that list. Once you've been assigned an event, take down the reach numbers for each fighter on the card and then email the data back. It's a quick and easy and will go a long way toward getting some consistent reach data that can be used to do real analysis. We really appreciate the help.

Note: If you volunteer for an event for which there is a DVD, you are responsible for the data for every fight on that card, not just the televised ones. For Fight Night cards and numbered events that don't yet have a DVD, you would only have to track the fighters that appeared on the broadcast.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Does Anyone Think Franklin Won All Three Rounds...

...aside from Chris Watts, that is?

If you want to see FightMetric's take on the round scoring, check out the report on the fight between Dan Henderson and Rich Franklin. Nobody likes split decisions, but do people really like draws any better?

It's exceedingly rare to see a split decision in which more than one round is in question. Usually, there's a single round that's very close and one judge sees it a different way than the other two. The Henderson-Franklin fight saw one judge that differed on two rounds. As far as we've tracked, there has only been one decision in which one judge saw all three rounds differently than the other two judges (i.e., scores of 30-27, 30-27, and 27-30). That was the TUF 4 Finale fight between Matt Serra and Chris Lytle.

We also have updated career reports for Franklin, Henderson, and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

Stick around for some Lyoto Machida material coming your way over the next two weeks. It's pretty amazing stuff.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Franklin, Shogun, and UFC 93

It's the week of UFC 93, and that means a look back at the careers of some of the top fighters on the card. Today marks the release of career reports for Rich Franklin and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

We also have two new in-depth fight reports. The first is for a fight that many considered the 2005 Fight of the Year, the battle between Shogun and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

The other fight is significant because it has the second highest fighter effectiveness score in UFC history. The fight between Rich Franklin and David Loiseau had Franklin throw up a score of 788. That comes in second to Georges St. Pierre's 814 against Jon Fitch.

Once UFC 93 is behind us, we'll shift our attention to UFC 94 and the statistical wonder that is Lyoto Machida. So we ask you: If you could choose one fight from Machida's career for us to create an in-depth report, which would it be? Leave your pick in a comment, and keep in mind, the fight against BJ Penn is already done.

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