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Major System Revision
It has always been our intention that FightMetric be a work-in-progress. From time to time, it becomes necessary to change things, be they detail, rule, or even one of the founding principles. Today, we make our first major revision.The change in question relates to damage. The system, as originally conceived, had four possibilities in the damage category: None, Light, Moderate, and Heavy. Each of the three damage levels had a certain multiplier associated with it, so the fighter's StrikeScore would be augmented based on the level of damage he had inflicted. The reason behind the multiplier (as opposed to a static award for damage) was to give greater reward to those who had struck effectively and give less benefit to those that may have scored a lucky elbow, for instance.The criteria for calling damage light, moderate, and heavy were never all that clear. The general guideline was to look at the number of "things." So one cut was light, two independent cuts were moderate, etc. But there was a lot of leeway to judge things as the scorer saw fit. The subjectivity associated with labeling levels of damage (and thereby awarding different effectiveness scores) was the most widely criticized facet of the FightMetric system. Critics argued that you couldn't rightly call a system objective if this subjective judgment played such a prominent role. After some thought, we are inclined to agree. From now on, damage is a binary decision; it either is or it isn't. So no matter how many "things" there are, it all falls under the "Yes damage" category and will have a single multiplier value. The result will be a smaller potential reward to a fighter who causes a bunch of accumulated damage. This change makes the FightMetric system a little less dynamic, but a lot more objective. That is a sacrifice we are more than happy to make.
UFC 83 TPR Report and Updated Career Reports
The TPR data for UFC 83 is up today, with stats for the six fights on the telecast. In addition, the career reports of Georges St. Pierre and Matt Serra have been updated to include their latest fight.One interesting note: Quarry gets a TPR of 61, proving that it's tough to put in an above-average performance when your opponent won't engage. Starnes' TPR of 24 is not exactly fair. The system awards him 10 points just for surviving to a decision, which is usually something of an accomplishment. Conceivably, if more fighters start using the "Starnes Strategy" we'd have to modify the equation. But we'd probably stop watching the sport before it ever came to that.
Mike Goldberg: FightMetric Mouthpiece?
It's always nice when folks let us know they enjoy our stats, but an even bigger pleasure is knowing that people are using them for their own purposes. We've helped several MMA writers add color to their stories with some stats, and our in-depth fight reports are used (and mis-used) in arguments across countless forums. Veteran UFC announcer Mike Goldberg has used some FightMetric stats on-air in the past, but no mention was more explicit than during the UFC 83 telecast. During the St. Pierre-Serra fight, Goldberg not only used several statistics we published in our article at Yahoo Sports, but immediatebly afterward, he quoted verbatim from the article, labeling St. Pierre, "maybe the best functional wrestler in MMA today." We maintain a liberal attribution policy when it comes to quoting numbers we've made publicly available on this site or others specifically because we want to see the ideas spread even independent of the FightMetric name. Indeed, Goldberg might simply be prohibited from mentioning the name of a site or company that isn't an official UFC sponsor. But given the potential exposure, if you were faced with this situation, what would you feel more of, disappointment or pride?
An Alternate Reality for Matt Serra
It was a championship fight, the most important fight of Matt Serra's career and it was a fight he should have lost. But despite the naysayers, he won, and his life has not been the same since. Matt Serra beat Chris Lytle.
With all the hubbub surrounding his win over Georges St. Pierre, it's easy to forget that Serra was one cranky judge away from quite a different career reality. The judges' scores for the Serra-Lytle fight were peculiar, to say the least. Two of the judges gave the win to Serra 30-27. The other judge gave a 30-27 victory to Lytle. There have been more than 700 fights in Nevada since MMA was regulated in 2001, more than 300 of which have gone to a decision. This is still the only decision in which two judges thought one fighter won every round and the other judge thought that same fighter lost every round.
FightMetric's effectiveness scores agree with Glenn Trowbridge, who gave the fight to Lytle. As you can see in the in-depth report on the fight, FightMetric calls the first two rounds for Lytle, while the third round is 10-10. That means a 30-28 victory for Lytle, who also has the edge in total points 103-72.
The career TPR Report for Serra is similarly uncharitable. TPR doesn't like Serra's style of positional control with occasional bursts of action. In addition, his accuracy scores aren't helped by the fact that he attempts an average of 12 takedowns per fight, but lands only 20% of them. Scoring each of Serra's 10 fights in the UFC, he manages a career average TPR of 53, which in baseball terms would be called "replacement level."
Had one of the others judges given the split decision nod to Lytle, who knows what would have happened to Serra. Would he have dropped back down to 155 like fellow TUF 5 alums Din Thomas and Rich Clementi or would he have stayed at 170, where he would likely be at least two fights away from a title shot? It's not to say that Serra wouldn't have beaten St. Pierre when given the chance, it just might have been a while longer before he got his shot.
The Career of Georges St. Pierre
Today marks the release of the career TPR report on Georges St. Pierre. Throughout his 17 career fights, St. Pierre has demonstrated an incredible level of dominance. His median TPR is 90 while his opponent's median TPR stands at just 13. He doesn't just look good, he makes his opponents look bad.For a more detailed analysis of St. Pierre's stats and what that might mean for his next fight, check out our article at Yahoo Sports. The column delves into St. Pierre's striking, jiu-jitsu, and phenomenal wrestling.
What Did the YAMMA Really Mean?
The new YAMMA surface was supposed to revolutionize the way MMA fights are fought. But what do the numbers from Friday's event tell us about the way the YAMMA surface really affects fights? FightMetric contributor Brent Wilson takes a closer look at the stats from the inaugural YAMMA event and provides answers to the following:* Did the surface give the advantage to the elevated fighter against the fence, as promised?* How did the raised edges affect the clinch game?* How do takedowns in YAMMA compare to takedowns in the ring or cage?What did you think about the YAMMA and what it means for the way the game is played?
New Fight Report - Liddell vs. Jardine
We've got a new in-depth fight report up today, the first non-Dan Henderson report in quite a while. This one analyzes the fight between Chuck Liddell and Keith Jardine. The scores for the fight make one wonder how this could have been a split decision in the first place. Seems Marcos Rosales was feeling a little contrarian that evening; it was the same night he gave Diego Sanchez the nod over Jon Fitch.
FightMetric on AOL
Earlier in the week, we participated in an email interview with Michael David Smith from AOL's Fanhouse blog. Check out the interview here for some thoughts on the future of stats in MMA and the fight community's acceptance of statistical analysis.
Fight Night 13 - Total Performance Report
Now up: Total Performance Ratings for the six fights on the Fight Night 13 telecast. A couple of interesting scores; Nick Diaz gets only a 41 despite winning the fight. Pellegrino's dominance in the first round (a 10-8 round) was enough to net him a 67 in a losing effort.The night saw two shutouts, James Irvin got a 100-0 against Houston Alexander and Tommy Speer earns a goose egg against Anthony Johnson who takes home a mere 95.
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