10-8 Rounds, a Reality Check
One of the biggest compaints that fans have about the ten-point must system is the lack of clarity surrounding rounds that are scored something other than 10-9. Close rounds are almost never called 10-10 and there have only been two 10-7 rounds in UFC history (Forrest Petz against Sam Morgan and Alessio Sakara against Elvis Sinosic). That leaves the elusive 10-8 round. No one knows what it takes to convince a judge that a round was dominant enought to deserve a 10-8, but we do know how often it happens. Based on a in-depth study of judging using publicly available NSAC records, we have found that less than 4% of MMA rounds are scored 10-8.
Scoring a round 10-8 is not something to take lightly in a three round fight, as demonstrated in the FightMetric report released today on the match between Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin. To do so means that the fighter who received eight points must dominate or end the fight if he wants to win. If all he can do is win the other two rounds by typical margins, the best he can hope for is a draw. That is precisely the situation that FightMetric ascribes to Griffin. Having been so totally dominated in the first round, Griffin's remarkeable comeback to win the final two rounds was not enought to award him the victory.
We have gotten several questions regarding FightMetric's requirements for a 10-8 round. Some have suggested that the firstround in the Hamill-Bisping fight should have been 10-8 in favor of Hamill; a decision that would have spared him his first loss.
FightMetric awards a 10-8 round when a fighter achieves a round score that is 100 or greater and is more than six times his opponent's round score. The 6x number is based on data relating to average round scores and is premised on the fact that a 10-8 round is essentially like winning two rounds at the same time.
In the case of Hamill-Bisping, Hamill won the first round by a score of 207-55. By contrast, Ortiz won the first round in his fight against Griffin by a score of 177-20. The important point was not the total score (Hamill had a higher number), but rather the differential. The 10-8 round is a measure of domination, not sheer volume of attacks. No matter how well a fighter performs in a round, he would not get a 10-8 if his opponent was similarly effective. Thus it is Ortiz who FightMetric awards a 10-8 round for tallying more than eight times his opponent's score, while Hamill receives a regulation 10-9 for a total that was not even four times Bisping's round score.
One of the things that will be interesting to see as the FightMetric project progresses is exactly how often 10-8 rounds should be scored. Maybe 4% is really the correct number and the judges have it right. Only time will tell.
posted by FightMetric @ 12:00 AM
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